A Practical Method for Converting Uncertainty into Headroom
ISBN: 1 84057 096 2
This report describes the background to and the results of the research project commissioned by United Kingdom Water Industry Research Ltd (UKWIR) and carried out by Sir William Halcrow & Partners (from May 1997 to January 1998) into converting uncertainty in the supply- demand balance into headroom. Headroom is a planning allowance and is the buffer between supply and demand to cater for specified uncertainties in the overall supply- demand balance to help a water company achieve its chosen level of service. This report describes a pragmatic methodology, based on multi- criteria analysis, to assess the magnitude of the uncertainties faced in a resource zone and thus enable the water company to allow for the effect of these in the supply- demand balance. The methodology is designed to introduce structure and clarity to the problem of assessing planning allowances. In doing so it will help to promote dialogue between water companies and the regulators on water resource planning issues.
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