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Distribution: Development of National Deterioration Models
Price: £400
Ref: 07/RG/05/20
ISBN: 1 84057 458 5
A set of burst rate models has been developed for use by the UK water industry.
Existing research in mains deterioration modelling was reviewed and the availability of suitable data within the UK water industry assessed. Data sets were received from the UKWIR National Mains Failure Database contractors and from three UK water companies. Third-party data on soil type, land use and weather were incorporated.
These data sets were used to assess the performance of six model types. Twenty-four calibrated models covering four data sets and six material types are described. A Model Calibration Toolbox is provided that allows company-specific data to be imported and used either to re-calibrate, or for comparison with (validation of) the models.
Conclusions are provided regarding the best performing model types, and statistically significant explanatory variables. Recommendations are provided for use of the models and toolbox, and for future deterioration modelling research.
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