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Climate Change Uncertainty in Water Resource Planning
Price: £250
Ref: 05/CL/04/4
ISBN: 1 84057 389 9
The project investigates uncertainty in the impact of climate change on river flows and water resource. Three sources of uncertainty were considered:
- Uncertainty in climate change projections, due to Global Climate Models (GCM), emission scenarios and downscaling techniques
- Uncertainty in climate variability, including natural variability and reproduction of current climate
- Uncertainty in hydrological modelling, including model parameters and model structure uncertainty
The impact of these uncertainties on the river flow regimes was assessed on thirteen catchments of Britain. Results showed that:
- For the 2020s, uncertainty due to emissions of greenhouse gases is small
- GCM uncertainty is the biggest source of uncertainty. Full impact studies should always consider a range of GCMs
- Downscaling uncertainty is significant but not as great as GCM uncertainty
- Hydrological uncertainty can be significant.
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